Consensus Thinking, Defined

"The pound rose on expectations that the prime minister would win a much increased Commons majority, allowing her to sideline implacable Eurosceptics in her Conservative party and ensure a phased Brexit concluding with a UK-EU free-trade deal."

--FT, April 18, 2017

"The pound is down sharply as traders react to the early election results. The currency market had been expecting a clear victory for Theresa May's party, but the results so far, and the exit poll, have cast doubt on a Conservative majority."

--BBC, June 9, 2017
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Skr
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June 9, 2017 at 6:20 AM ×

Skr April 26, 2017 at 10:46 AM

"Checkmate, I agree with you that the Tories Won't increase their majority or even hold what they have."

I prefer quality to quantity.

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checkmate
admin
June 9, 2017 at 6:36 AM ×

Salutary lessons to be learned in this one. Perhaps I should have typo'd it 'SaluTORY'. If Theresa May was a fullback she'd probably hold some kind of record for the number of own goals scored.

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Skr
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June 9, 2017 at 8:33 AM ×

-January 5, 2017 at 11:12 AM
"James, that is well and good, and with no surprises you may be right to only focus on the downside levels of the Eur (conversely the upside of the dollar).

All the usual bricks are there in the wall of worry and the market is at that brave stage where they are simply ignored or factored in by the risk parity guys.
One brick that I do not hear much about is the Middle East, and that has me sceptical. If a shitstorm were to erupt there (and a high probability it would involve Saudi), it could turn the "dollar trade" on its head.

That's what I'm keeping a close eye on anyhow."

While I'm at it.

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sothea hy
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June 20, 2017 at 1:54 AM ×

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